I think it’s never a good idea to overthink songwriting but it happens. It happens especially if you’re aiming to write songs that other people, publishers and audience would like to hear. It might work but not many know how to do it. Instead of success there’s a big change you’re going to lost your motivation to create music if you’re following that path too long.
I’d suggest that instead of aiming to please other people you should just write more music you like. That way there’s a better chance that one of your tunes will take you somewhere eventually. If that’s even important.
Here’s one interesting riff I wrote last week. I guess it could go well in grunge type of a song.